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Weekly Review

The following charts are presented without making trade recommendations. Do not consider any information provided as investment advice

11/06/2026 8:30 pm

Click on the following link for a video review of past market tops.

MARKET TOP VIDEO                                     

(click on the above video link and it will download, then open when the download is complete.)

MARKET COMMENT:

I have been following the 1929 top pattern with the Nasdaq Composite AND the Nasdaq 100. The following chart of the comparison suggests we might see a tight range half back in the coming week.

 

The following chart shows the Nasdaq year 2000 top WAS following the 1929 top pattern, but then lost volatility and dribbled out sideways for a couple of months.

If we continue to follow the 1929 top pattern WE NEED TO MONITOR THE CORRELATION DAY BY DAY.

 

 

In the video I compare the current market WITH the weekly jobless claims to the Dow top in year 2000 WITH weekly Jobless claims. Yesterday we had a new low weekly jobless claims and the comparison in year 2000 ALSO had low weekly jobless claims at a similar period in the market top pattern.

 

I think the chart above showing the crazy range week we just had is actually similar to a crazy week in the comparison to the year 2000 top, tells us we have a high probability that the Bull top IS the August 5 top.

BOTTOM LINE: I think the top IS in place, and we MAY have a crash in the Nasdaq, but, like in year 2000, not in the Dow. Based on most comparisons next week should be a walk up to a half back. WE NEED TO GO TO SCHOOL ON THE MARKET AND BE PREPARED TO DRAW NEW OPINIONS, OR, PREPARE FOR A NASDAQ CRASH INTO THANKSGIVING 

Please call if you have any questions. 

Thanks

George

 

 

Long Term
==============================  
LONG TERM

Generally, investors look to buy stocks when valuations are cheap and sell when overvalued.

The Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500 suggests the same long term market overvalued condition as the above long term price to Peak Earnings chart.

Current Shiller PE Ratio: 38.91 +0.12 (0.32%)
4:00 PM EST, Fri Nov 6
Mean: 17.45
Median: 16.14
Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920)
Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999)

Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe 

 
see https://dqydj.com/sp-500-price-to-peak-earnings/ 

for information on PRICE TO PEAK EARNINGS

 

Short and Intermediate Term

Forecast and Follow

SHORT TERM   

FOLLOW INDICATORS should be viewed literally. 

ADVANCE DECLINE VOLUME INDICATOR

The chart below shows my short term overbought oversold volume indicator. The indicator combines the advancing and declining volume of the NYSE and the NASDAQ.

The red line is the 9 day MA and the light blue line is the 40 day MA of the combined volume. The blue line is the accumulated advance decline volume of the NYSE combined with the NASDAQ.

Check exchanges individually  NYSE AD VOL OSCILLATOR    NASDAQ AD VOL OSCILLATOR 

 Follow: 

ati.gif

 

 

The McCellan Oscillator shows similar overbought oversold levels as my AD Volume only oscillator above.

Follow: The McCellan Oscillator  

  https://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/ 

3% LINES  

In the 1987 market decline the "portfolio insurance entered the market at 3% intervals. Since then I track market support and resistance at levels 3% off the recent high. see 1987 Crash 3% chart

 Follow -  3% LINES

KERMITT  

 see 1987 Crash Kermitt chart

 Follow - 

 

 

 

 
   

48 MPB  9   3%  22 ST Mode  19  GS  4 new ATI  26 VIX  k

Forecast and Follow

 

My forecast model runs hot and cold depending on certain heavy stock manipulation - ie the Tech Buybacks. Lately, the techs are getting in rouble with the AI buildout and we may fall back into the model cycles.

stmodel

Short term trading can use HOURLY charts of the major stock market indexes to identify Market Price Box short term trading signals.

In the past I used the HOURLY charts of 12 indexes to generate short term Market Price Box buy and sell signals for the S&P 500 index. Recently, I have found that using the following FIVE hourly charts of index ETFs give most all of the signals generated by the 12 indexes.

The Market Price Boxes on average tend to range about 1% of the SPY (the S&P 500 index ETF.). I consider a 2% move from the breakout a successful trade. On risk positions, use breaking the opposite side of the MPB as the stop on the trade. On 7 day option SPREAD trades, risk the spread premium, exit on a double. (call for info on option strategy.) 

Green arrows indicate buy signals, red arrows for sells. Yellow arrows are for potential setups. Chart signals on DAY SESSION data.

COMMENT: No comment is provided because you can see this indicator can give reversing signals in as little time as a day to a few days.
Green arrow = buy trade. Red arrow = sell trade.
Green box = $$ win trade. Red box =XX  loss trade. Yellow box = open trade.
A win = near 2% (low vol use 1.5%) market move (gain) by 5 to 7 days after entering trade day.
 

mpb
Short term trading  CONFIRMATION CHART

I am adding the following HOURLY chart of Goldman Sachs (GS) compared to BlackRock (BLK).

Back in the day, because Merrill Lynch stock was owned by market professionals, many professional traders looked to the chart of Merrill Lynch as a confirming indicator of trend of the market. Merrill is no longer publicly traded, owned by B of A,  and Goldman is the major institutional broker and BlackRock the largest fund manager.

The following chart is an HOURLY chart comparison of GS to BLK. I focus on GS as my confirming indicator and so I show MARKET PRICE BOXES on GS based on short term divergences between GS and BLK. I look to the price of GS being above or below the most recent Market Price Box as a short term trend confirming indicator.

 

Short term trading  CONFIRMATION CHART

EXPERIMENTAL CHART - I have limited history in looking at these three option implied volatility charts as a separate indicator. Generally look at the VIX as above or below the most recent VIX MPB.

The following are HOURLY CHARTS of the VIX (Short term volatility of the SPY options), VXN  (Short term volatility of the QQQ options), And VVIX  (Short term volatility of the VIX options).

A break DOWN on the VIX chart is a positive sign for the market.
 
 

 

 

 

If anything in this report is viewed by the reader as a trade recommendation, all aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. 

A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  

YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. 

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. 

ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

rp